Priority 1 and 1a for the Yankees this offseason

Now that free agency is upon us, it’s time for every random fan to play armchair GM, and start spouting wild speculation about who they think their team should go after in the off-season. Of course we hear at at Big Apple Baseball aren’t just some random fans who want to be GMs, we’re random fans who want to be GMs, with a website! So here are my targets for the Yankees this winter.

1) Robinson Cano : The no brainer in the group, Cano is the best player on the team by far. The Yankees have to resign him if they hope to convince the fans they are serious about contending this year. There is no other second baseman available this winter that can come close to his production, both offensively, and defensively. If he goes, the Yanks will likely have to trade for either Brandon Phillips (.261/.310/.396) this year, Howie Kendrick (.297/.335/.439), or sign free agent Omar Infante (.315/.335/.450).

While Kendrick and Infante may not seem like huge downgrades from Cano’s (.314/.383/.516) 2013 stats, the numbers don’t tell the whole truth. None of those players can come close to the power that Robby displays, he is pretty much a lock for 30 homers a year, none of the alternatives are likely to break 20 or even come close. Not to mention his elite defense at second base.

The other issue with guys like Kendrick and Phillips is that both are still under contract for 2014. The Yankees don’t really have the prospects to get a deal done that won’t handcuff them in the future. It would likely cost a Nova or Sanchez to pry Kendrick from the Angels, and that is not a price the team should be willing to pay for 1 year of Howie Kendrick. As for Phillips, he has 3 more years left on his current deal deal with the Reds and I have to think that there is a team out there with better prospects to get a deal done, possibly the Royals.

That really just leaves Omar Infante as the only acceptable option if the Yanks lose Cano this winter. Infante is the same age as Robby, and has had some good years, I was a little surprised at some of his numbers when I was researching for this article, he is as career .279 hitter and solid defensive player as well. Like Cano, he’s not exactly the quickest guy on the bases, but you can live with that. The real loss is in the power department, as he only averages 10 homers a season.

All in all the Yankees need Cano back this winter. No one can come close to what he provides on the field. Unfortunatly there is no help coming from the farm system anytime soon, Corban Joeseph sure isn’t the second baseman of the future. Is Omar Infante and acceptable replacement… yes, but this is the Yankees we are talking about, second best is not acceptable.

1a) Masahiro Tanaka:  The best pitcher in this years free agent class comes not from America, but from Japan. For the past 3 seasons, Masahiro Tanaka has posted a sub 2 ERA, his career WHIP, 1.108, granted that’s in the Japanese league. Now, just for a fun comparison, Matt Harvey’s career WHIP, including his time in the minors is 1.137. While that may be a somewhat silly comparison, it give you an idea of what kind of pitcher Tanaka is.

Not only is Tanaka a clear ace, he is also 25 years old. Players of his caliber are never available at that age. Especially when it only will cost the Yankees (or whatever team eventually signs him,) money. After Yu Darvish garnered a $52 million dollar posting fee, one can only imagine how much Tanaka will command, my bet would be somewhere around $60 million. Fortunately that fee does not count to the luxury tax, so for the Yanks, money should not be an issue.

The only issue with Tanaka, is that the MLB and NPB are currently renegotiating the posting process. There has been some recent uncertainty as to whether or not these two baseball behemoths will get the new deal done before the start of next season. If they don’t strike a new deal players may use the proposed new system, or may not sign this off-season.

So those are my top prioritys for the Yankee off-season. I will be writing up 2 through 5 later this week, and then 6-10 some time after that. Let me know what you guys think in the comments.

Cano a Hoe?

This is a written by good friend and Website contributor (Cow Boy)George Clancy. Life Long Yankee Fan and current angry man/former bleacher season ticket holder. Please excuse any format errors bc i am an idiota-Jeff

Resign Cano????????

As the Yankees head into the offseason, there are many questions regarding which direction the team should take regarding resigning and acquiring players. With the ownership pushing for getting under the 189 million budget to avoid paying heavy luxury taxes, there are some important decisions  coming up in the next couple of months, the most important being Robinson Cano’s upcoming free agency.

In past years, resigning Cano would be a no brainer for the organization. Cano is a home-grown talent and has put up all-star numbers at a middle infield position in which power hitting is a rarity. He is a slick fielding second baseman with a left-handed swing that is tailor made for the short right field porch at Yankee Stadium. In his last three seasons, he has accumulated 20.7 WAR and has hit .309/.371/.55 while batting in the middle of a lineup filled with aging stars and stop gap replacement players. King George would have basically handed Jay-Z a blank check and there would be a press conference scheduled in November to make the announcement. Yet, with the murky future of the Yankees organization, it doesn’t make sense for the Yankees to resign Cano. There is 31 million dollars of cap space that the Yankees are unsure of having, depending on what happens with A-Rod’s suspension appeal. That case will drag potentially until late December, and I doubt Cano will want to wait the market out that long and risk teams signing other options at second base instead. Cano has asked the Yankees for a ten year, 300 million dollar contract, which is insane numbers for a contract that would stretch until he is 40. With the Yankees on the hook with big contracts for A-Rod, C.C. and Teixeira, I doubt they would want to have another aging star on the books limiting their spending flexibility. Many experts see Cano signing a seven or eight year deal worth between 160-230 million. The Yankees have about 65 million dollars in their budget for free agents this offseason if they are to achieve their goal of staying under the 189 million threshold. Committing 25 million to Cano would eat up a significant amount of this money and hurt their chances of addressing other areas that clearly need to be shored up.

Aside from the money issue, there is the possibility of Cano declining rapidly while playing in his mid-thirties as well. For some reason, there are many all-star second basemen that have seen a rapid decline in their numbers as they approached their mid-thirties. Names like Edgardo Alfonso, Carlos Baerga, Marcus Giles, Chuck Knoblauch, and even Roberto Alomar are examples of second basemen that saw their numbers drop off of a cliff when they hit their mid-thirties. The last thing the Yankees need to do is get caught in another long term contract with a player with eroding skills. If the Yankees are going to commit to this 189 million dollar payroll figure, resigning Cano doesn’t make sense. They would be much better off letting him go as a free agent and getting the two  compensatory draft picks from whichever team signs him. (There can be a quick turnaround with these picks, Mike Trout was drafted by the Angels using the picks they acquired from the Yankees after the Teixeira signing in 2009.) They are better off signing a player like Omar Infante and hoping that they can  develop a minor league player in the future to take over at second base. As much as the Yankees tried to promote Cano, nobody was buying tickets to see Cano play baseball. He was a good to great middle  infielder for the Yankees, but the inherent risks involved with signing Cano outweigh the rewards of keeping him in the Bronx with a long term contract. If the Yankees are going to commit to this fiscal responsibility, moves like not resigning Cano will have to be the norm rather than the exception for the immediate future.

Best regards

George Clancy

“Knowledge has to be improved, challenged, and increased constantly, or it vanishes.”
-Peter Drucker

Top Reasons Yankee Fans Should Be Pessimistic Heading Into 2014

1) Younger Pitching Staff

This was Chris’ first reason for off-season optimism. but with youth comes inexperience and inconsistency. Even if we give Yankee fans Nova (which, for what will now be expected of him, will not be a gimme), that still leaves questions abound about CC, Pineda, Phelps and whoever else they’re gonna get to try and put together a respectable starting rotation. If you ask me this is more of a reason to be pessimistic than optimistic. But that’s just me, a bitter Mets fan.

2) A Full Year of Soriano

Once again I’m piggy-backing off Chris’ second reason for “optimism” cause i just couldn’t disagree more. And i don’t care if its turns into some spirited and engaging debate that the readers just can’t get enough of. Fuck that noise.

With a full year to watch Alfonso Soriano, Yankee fans will see all his warts rise to the surface. The very same warts that made the Cubs deem a trade, in which they receive “uber-prospect” Corey Black AND pay the Yanks roughly 12 million dollars just so they didn’t have to see Soriano’s face again, a good move. Just you watch, his defense will be worse, his average will be lower and thus this love that Yankee fans now have will dissipate. Just you watch

 

3) No Mo’ Mo

Fans of the Evil Empire will tell you they’re not at all worried about replacing Mariano because Robertson is ready to step up, and they’ll tell you this with a straight face. I know, but before you call them all words that you cant take back, just sit back, take a sip of your favorite cocktail and remind yourself they don’t know any better. Their smugness knows no bounds. All they now is winning and they think its so easy. Lose the best closer in history? Just put in David Robertson and everything will be fine, because you’re the Yankees. Sorry you brain-dead Bronxonians but it will not be that easy. You will quickly come to find that life without Mo is not so lovely. And no, I will not be giving stats to back up my argument. All I need is the law of averages. Your ninth inning cant be that rosy forever.

Five reasons to be optimistic about the 2014 Yankees

This week Luke and I are going to be posting contrasting articles on the what we have to be positive and negative about for our teams next year. As the resident Yankee fan I’ll be starting us off with five things every Yankee fan should look forward to:

1) A younger pitching staff: Last year the three oldest pitchers in baseball played for the Yankees. Two, possibly three of them will not be returning. That means the Yankees get younger by default. We already saw Ivan Nova take a big step forward this season, if he has really figured something out he could be the number two starter out of spring training.

The team is also rumored to be in hot pursuit of Masahiro Tanaka a right handed Japanese pitcher with the Rakuten Golden Eagles. He could be a solid number three behind CC and Nova, that leaves the four spot for Micheal Pineda, who will finally be ready to contribute to the big league club two years after being traded to the Yankees. That leaves the five hole for Nuno, Phelps and Warren to fight over in spring training.

2) A full year of Soriano: I know this doesn’t sound like something to really get excited about, but he was a reborn player coming to New York. A full season could mean 30 homers 100 RBI with a smattering of stolen bases scattered in there to.

3) Less injuries: Let’s face it, last year was a fluke, even a team comprised of baseball playing Methuselahs like the Yankees can’t have that many weird injuries two years in a row. Now pardon me as I go knock on wood.

4) Girardi is back: While managers in baseball don’t have the on-field impact of say a football or basketball coach, having a good manager matters, and Joe Girardi is a damn good manager. He has the highest winning percentage of any active manager (.566) and after this year we have seen what he is capable of. Having Joe back is a big positive for this team going forward.

5) Resetting the luxury tax: This may sound odd, but I’m hoping the Yankees get under the $189 million dollar budget goal. First off, that’s a lot of money, even if they resign Cano there should still be around 60 – 70 million left in the budget for free agents this year. That’s the payroll of the Astros and Marlins combined; or a better example, more then the entire payroll of The Rays, Athletics, and Pirates. The Yankees should be able to compete with that kind of money being spent.

Once the Yankees get under $189 million for a season they will reset their luxury tax hit from 50% to 15%. If they do it this year it will let them spend heavily on the 2015 free agent class, which has a number of talented players that the team could use to retool and build for the future.

So that’s my top 5 reasons to be optimistic for next season, let me know what you think in the comments. Later this week I will be posting my top 5 reasons for Mets fans to be pessimistic about 2014 so stay tuned!