The A-Rod suspension domino effect

dominoes

Yesterday morning the news finally broke, the national mystery was solved… how long would Alex Rodriguez’s suspension be? The answer, 162 games; the entire 2014 season as well as the post season, should the Yankees make it that far. Now I’m not going to discuss whether or not the the full year suspension was warranted or not, in this article I am going to examine how this effects the Yankees and A-Rod going forward.

For the short term, the Yankees need a third baseman. Sure, they have Kelly Johnson, Eduardo Nunez and Dean Anna, but none of these players are ideal. Nunez is an embarrassment defensively, Anna is a relative unknown, and at best Johnson is an average 2nd baseman, which means he will likely be a below average 3rd baseman. This means the Yanks need to go out and find themselves someone to man the hot corner, and this late in the off season the pickings are slim.

The only real options right now are Mark Reynolds and Michael Young. While neither one is going to give the Yankees an all star caliber 3rd baseman, I think the better choice is Mark Reynolds. At 30, Reynolds is 7 years younger then the aptly named Michael Young, that would make him one of the youngest members of the team. We also saw how well Reynolds performed last year in his limited time with the Yankees, hitting 6 home runs in only 120 plate appearances. As for defense, frankly neither player is very good, though at least Reynolds posted a positive dWAR with the Yankees last year (a whopping .3, but still better then Young’s -.4 with the Dodgers in a similar amount of time.)

All in all, the choices aren’t great, but Reynolds is better then anything else that is readily available, so hopefully the Yankees pick him up, I doubt he would cost more 5-6 million, that shouldn’t be an issue with the savings the Yankees are getting by not having to pay A-Rod this year.

And of course as I was writing this article the Yankees go out and sign Scott Sizemore to a minor league deal. Sizemore has had 6 plate appearances since 2011 when he tore his ACL… Twice. Defensively he should be better then most other options. But his career batting numbers (.238/.328/.381) are pretty terrible, not exactly the power hitting third baseman the Yanks need. considering his injury history, lack of recent playing time, and poor batting, I’m not wild about the move, but since its only a minor league deal i suppose there is no real harm in it.

Taking a slightly longer view of the situation, we see that the Yankees are now significantly below the $189 luxury tax threshold. Now, if they sign Tanaka they will likely be right up against it and more then likely will end up blowing past it. But what if they don’t sign Tanaka, what then?

My guess is if the Yankees are unable to land Tanaka, they will end up signing a lesser free agent pitcher for the four spot, and then going in house for the fifth starter. Now, when I say a lesser free agent starter, I’m not talking about a Santana, Jimenez, or Garza. I’m talking about a Capuano or Arroyo. These guys would let the Yankees stay under $189 million so they can reset the luxury tax.

Now this may sound like a good thing, and for the far future I’m sure it is; but this is the Yankees we’re talking about. Going with scrap heap pitchers for the back end of the rotation, a bunch of old men and stop gaps manning the left side of the infield is as close to a rebuild year as we have seen in a long time. You add in the fact that the Yanks signed three big name free agents already, and you have the recipe for a messy season. This off season may not be remembered for what they went out and acquired, but for what they lost.

The final domino in my little metaphor, is Alex’s future with the Yankees. Will he return for the 2015 season, could the courts grant him an injunction and let him play this year, does he even appear in spring training? First off, I doubt the team will want him in Tampa this spring, though I’m not sure they can keep him out, he’s on the roster, and apparently the suspension doesn’t include spring training so we may see him down there, if he is with the team I’m sure there will be a media circus around him. We all know the Yankees don’t want to deal with that, so for everyone’s sake I hope they manage to keep him out.

As for the far future, I’m not sure we have seen the last of Alex Rodriguez in pinstripes. he will still be owed $61 million for the 2015-17 seasons. That’s a lot of money to write off if the Yanks give him the boot, they may be better off keeping him around as a DH, it’s slightly better then flushing the money down the toilet. If they do cut him, some other team that doesn’t care about what they are putting on the field could pick him up (I’m looking at you Miami Marlins.) They would have to pay him the major league minimum, while the Yankees still have to shell out millions of dollars.

There is one final domino to fall in all of this (I love my little metaphor,) and that is the real future of third base for the Yankees. Internal options are lacking, we saw what David Adams could do last year, Eric Jagielo and Dante Bichette jr. are at least a year or two away, and Ronnie Mustillier may be able to hit, but he can’t field. Chase Headley is a free agent next year, and the Yankees have tried to trade for him in the past. My guess is they look into signing him next off season, though that would pretty much put the last nail in the A-Rod coffin.

With the arbitrators ruling this week the Biogenesis story comes to an end. The players have all been punished, and baseball will be steroid scandal free for at least a few years months. We have our answers, but all they have done is lead us to new questions, questions we may not know the answers to for a very long time.

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